Schaeffer's Daily Option Blog

Speculators Find Michael Kors Calls to Be the Fashionable Options

But most of today's KORS call players are bears in bulls' clothing

by Terri Stridsberg 2/7/2012 2:29 PM
Stocks quoted in this article:

Michael Kors Holdings Ltd. (KORS - 32.96) has seen a major upswing in call activity today, as close to 5,400 of these options have been traded so far, reflecting an impressive 31 times the equity's expected intraday volume. The at-the-money February 33 strike has proven to be the favorite among speculators, where more than 5,000 calls have changed hands -- nearly all of them at the bid price, suggesting they were sold. Currently, this option carries open interest of just nine contracts, so it's safe to assume that new positions are being opened here today. By selling these calls to open, traders are counting on the stock to fall south of the $33 mark over the course of the next couple of weeks.

The clothing and fashion designer is no stranger to call-buying activity, however. The equity's 10-day International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) call/put volume ratio checks in at 13.61, which means that investors have bought to open more than 13 calls for every put during the past two weeks. In a similar bullish vein, the Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) stands at 0.40, confirming that calls more than double puts among options set to expire with within three months.

All of the analysts following KORS seem to share this upbeat sentiment toward the stock. According to Zacks, the equity boasts six "buy" or better endorsements, compared to zero "hold" or worse recommendations.

Examining KORS' technical performance, the Wall Street rookie has added more than 21% so far this year. On the charts, the stock has been enjoying steady support at its 10-day moving average since mid-January. At last check, however, the equity is down about 0.5% to hover around the $32.96 area. It's also worth noting that the fashion maven is scheduled to take its first turn in the earnings confessional a week from today.


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TiVo Attracts Call Traders with Positive Price Action

TIVO is abuzz with front-month call activity

by Terri Stridsberg 2/7/2012 1:40 PM
Stocks quoted in this article:

Investors have swarmed TiVo Inc. (TIVO - 11.75) in the options pits today, as approximately 15,000 calls have been exchanged so far, which is five times above the norm. More than 5,200 of these calls have crossed at the in-the-money February 11 strike -- almost all of them at the bid price, signaling seller-fueled activity. This option currently holds peak call open interest of 13,240 contracts, making it hard to discern whether new positions are being opened in this session.

This favoritism toward calls over puts is more of the same for TIVO. The Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) rests at 0.33, meaning that calls triple puts among options set to expire within three months. In fact, this ratio ranks lower than any other reading taken within the last 12 months, indicating that near-term options players are more bullishly aligned toward the stock now than any other time during the past year.

What's more, TIVO's 10-day call/put volume ratio checks in at 12.47, according to the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) -- confirming that calls bought to open have outnumbered puts by more than 12 to one during the last two weeks. This ratio registers in the 76th percentile of its annual range, conveying that traders have been scooping up bullish options over bearish at a faster-than-usual clip.

Elsewhere, however, short interest on TIVO rose by 8.92% during the most recent reporting period, and now accounts for a lofty 12.23% of the stock's float. This could mean that short sellers looking to hedge their bearish bets are responsible for some of the recent call activity.

From a technical perspective, TIVO has gained more than 31% year-to-date, and has bested the broader S&P 500 Index (SPX) by close to 12% over the last 40 sessions. On the charts, the stock continues to be ushered higher by its 10-day moving average, which has acted as support since early January.

At last look, TIVO is up about 2% to trade at $11.75. The stock is likely still celebrating an upbeat Barron's article, which called TIVO a possible takeover target by Microsoft (MSFT) or Google (GOOG).


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Analysts, Option Players Up the Bullish Ante Ahead of iRobot Earnings

IRBT is attracting 40-strike call buyers

by Andrea Kramer 2/7/2012 12:44 PM
Stocks quoted in this article:

The shares of iRobot Corporation (IRBT - 37.00) are on the upswing today, after analysts at Brigantine lifted their price target on the stock to $42 from $33. What's more, ahead of the firm's turn in the earnings limelight tomorrow night, it looks like the options crowd is also waxing optimistic on the robot maker.

Around midday, IRBT has seen close to 500 calls change hands -- about five times its average daily volume. Digging deeper, we find that traders are initiating new positions at the February 40 and March 40 calls, which have each seen intraday volume exceed open interest. Plus, the majority of the near-term calls have crossed at the ask price, suggesting they were bought. By purchasing the 40-strike calls to open, the buyers are betting on IRBT to topple the $40 level within the options' respective lifetime.

From a wider sentiment scope, today's preference for calls is par for the course for IRBT. On the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the security sports a 10-day call/put volume ratio of 26.62. What's more, this ratio registers in the 86th percentile of its annual range, implying that option buyers have initiated bullish bets over bearish at a faster-than-usual pace during the past couple of weeks.

Echoing that trend, the equity's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.48 indicates that calls more than double puts among options slated to expire within three months. Compared to similar readings taken during the past year, this ratio ranks in the 19th percentile. In other words, near-term options traders are currently more call-heavy than usual on IRBT.

However, it's worth mentioning that short interest edged 2.2% higher during the most recent reporting period, and now represents more than two weeks' worth of pent-up buying demand, at IRBT's average pace of trading. As such, the growing affinity for long calls could be attributable to short sellers hedging their pessimistic positions.

At last check, IRBT has added 0.7% to linger in the $37 neighborhood. Historically speaking, the company has bested the Street's per-share earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters, Thomson Reuters reports.


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Ahead of Earnings, Call Players Descend Upon Nuance Communications

One trader constructs a long calendar spread with calls on NUAN

by Terri Stridsberg 2/7/2012 12:14 PM
Stocks quoted in this article:

Nuance Communications (NUAN - 29.31) received a price-target hike to $34 from $22 and an upgrade to "buy" from "hold" at ThinkEquity yesterday, which may have sparked some bullish activity in the options pits. Nearly 13,100 calls crossed the tape on Monday, which was almost triple the software firm's average daily volume. Most popular among traders were the February 35 and March 35 strikes, where over 8,400 of these calls changed hands -- most of them at the ask price, suggesting they were bought. Meanwhile, open interest at these strikes soared overnight, signaling the opening of new positions.

Digging deeper into the data, it appears that a block of 206 calls was sold at the March 31 strike, while an equal number of calls were purchased at the April 31 strike. This activity implies the initiation of a long calendar spread. By using this strategy, the trader is betting that the stock will finish at or just below $31 by March expiration. At that point, he has one of two choices: Pocket the premium received from the nearer-term call -- and either hold or sell the longer-term call, which still holds time value; or, exit his position before back-month options expire, capping his risk to the net debit of 40 cents per pair of contracts.

This affinity for calls over puts is par for the course on NUAN. In fact, data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) reveals a 10-day call/put volume ratio of 15.80 for the equity. In other words, calls bought to open have outnumbered puts by nearly 16 to one during the past two weeks. This ratio ranks in the 77th percentile of its annual range, confirming that traders have been snapping up bullish options over bearish at a faster-than-usual pace.

It bears mentioning, however, that short interest on NUAN skyrocketed by 31.75% during the past two reporting periods, and now represents a healthy 6.1% of the equity's float. This raises the possibility that some of the recent call volume is the result of hedging activity by short sellers.

Technically speaking, NUAN has added roughly 17% year-to-date, and has outpaced the broader S&P 500 Index (SPX) by close to 13% during the past 40 sessions. On the charts, the stock continues to enjoy support at its 10-week moving average, which has provided a floor for the stock since mid-September.

It should also be noted that NUAN is scheduled to report its fiscal first-quarter earnings after Thursday's closing bell, and has bested analysts' bottom-line estimates in three of the past four quarters. Despite another price-target hike to $36 from $29 at Brigantine this morning, the equity remains nearly flat with yesterday's close of $29.31.


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Apollo Group Sees a Rare Jump in Front-Month Call Activity

Call volume climbs on APOL, despite weak technical performance

by Terri Stridsberg 2/7/2012 10:54 AM
Stocks quoted in this article:

Speculators showed an unusual interest in Apollo Group (APOL - 53.45) calls yesterday, as more than 5,100 of these contracts crossed the tape, more than doubling the equity's average daily volume. The bulk of the trading centered around the out-of-the-money February 55 strike, where over 4,900 calls were exchanged -- most of them at the ask price, suggesting they were bought. However, open interest at this strike fell by 1,186 contracts overnight, signaling liquidation activity. Even so, this option still carries peak call open interest of 6,742 contracts.

Despite Monday's surge in call volume, puts still appear to be the options of choice for APOL. The equity sports a Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.63, conveying that puts comfortably outnumber calls among options slated to expire within three months. In fact, this ratio ranks in the 92nd percentile of its annual range, which means that traders have been more bearishly oriented toward the stock just 8% of the time over the past year.

Furthermore, data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) shows a 10-day put/call volume ratio of 2.93 for APOL, indicating that puts bought to open have nearly tripled calls during the last couple of weeks. This ratio registers in the 80th annual percentile, conveying that investors have been scooping up bearish options over bullish at an accelerated clip.

On the technical front, APOL has underperformed the broader S&P 500 Index (SPX) by around 12% during the past 20 sessions. A look at the charts shows that the stock is already poised to close a second week beneath its 10-week moving average, which had previously served as support since early December.

At last check, however, APOL is up about 1.8% and is trading at $53.45.


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Diamond Foods Inc (DMND) $37.38 -1.11%

2/7/2012 3:20:03 PM
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Yahoo Inc (YHOO) $15.80 -0.13%

2/7/2012 1:20:01 PM
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Barrick Gold Corporation (ABX) $49.56 +0.79%

2/7/2012 12:20:03 PM
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Yahoo Inc (YHOO) $15.79 -0.85%

2/6/2012 4:20:02 PM
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