Bernie Schaeffer: Market-Timing Accuracy

Bernie Schaeffer At a Glance
Market-Timing Accuracy | What Others Are Saying

1. October 27, 1994 "You are looking at an unusually attractive and potentially historic buying opportunity right here. Equity and mutual-fund players should buy stocks and equity funds with both hands in preparation for a major rally."
2. September 21, 1995 "Are we at or near a market top now? Not on your life!"
3. July 28, 1997 "The bottom line is that this bull market is more vulnerable to a short-term correction than it normally would be due to some of the recent speculative excesses, but such a correction is by no means assured, and if it occurs, it is very likely to be of the 10-percent variety such as those that occurred in July 1996 and in April 1997. And, as I stated last week, we have not seen the ultimate top for this bull market."
4. March 29,1999 "I stand by my forecast that the Dow will reach 11,500 in 1999. All of the bullish factors that I set forth in my 1999 market forecast remain in place." Note: On December 31, 1999, the Dow closed at 11,497!
5. October 21, 1999 "So fear is clearly in the air; yet so far, this pullback in the major averages has held at key support levels … High levels of fear on bull market pullbacks to support are harbingers of further gains, so hang on for what might be a rough, but ultimately rewarding, ride." Note: The SPX bottomed that week at 1233.70 before embarking on a huge rally that saw the index gain 26 percent over the next five months.
6. October 9, 2000 "My biggest concern right now is that the market-bottoming scenario has become too pat, and the fear levels are not where they need to be to justify a bottom right here and right now."
7. February 27, 2001 "I'm now turning 'bearish…' the behavior in the S&P 500 Index in the coming months is likely to differ from its behavior over the long bull market … [There is also] potential for a close this month for the first time in over a decade below [the SPX's] 40-month moving average." Note: The SPX closed below its 40-month trendline in both February and March 2000.
8. April 26, 2001 "…we still contend that the bear market is not dead."
9. October 25, 2001 "So there is upside from here, but I'm playing this rally with one eye focused on the exit door. First and foremost, while we've recovered to pre-attack levels in the market, this in no way negates the fact that we're in a bear market, and the technical position of this bear market is the worst since 1974."
10. March 21, 2002 "But I strongly believe that the time has come to take some serious measures to anticipate a major market decline before 2002 is over …"
11. May 29, 2002 "…we do not foresee a solid end to this bear market until a solid level of fear is prevalent in the marketplace."
12. November 14, 2002
"Long-term investors should remain out of this market. Traders should look at tech names for potential short-term gains."
13. August 21, 2003
"The bears are going to continue to pay the price over the short to intermediate term"
14. November 20, 2003
"So am I prepared to declare a market top right here and now? Not quite. While I do believe this market is running out of firepower, it is not yet running on fumes."
15. July 13, 2004
"I envision a possible scenario in which tech stages an earnings-induced rally over the next couple of weeks that will flush out any residual short-term bearish sentiment."
16. January 27, 2005
"…is the stock market trade 'crowded' and thus indicative of such substantial vulnerability? You bet - particularly in the so-called "safe, quality, mega-cap blue chips."
October 24, 2005 "So for the market at large, a slight bounce higher over the next month or so appears likely…"
January 26, 2006 "it still makes no sense to invest in the slow-growth or no-growth large-cap blue-chip names that continue to be trumpeted to you by Wall Street."
May 25, 2006 "If you're looking for the blue chips to lead the market on the next leg up, you're playing a fool's game."
October 26, 2006 "Despite the fact that the S&P has been chalking up new 52-week highs with regularity, the VIX has been refusing to break down into the single digits. I find this to be a positive omen for the staying power of this rally…"
February 22, 2007 "I’ve been on record from last October as calling for an all-time high in the SPX, and I now see this as a distinct possibility in the first half of this year." Note: the SPX hit a new all-time high in intraday trading on July 16, 2007."
May 24, 2007 "I would fully expect any pullback to generate more than enough bearish sentiment to set the stage for a major push by the S&P to all-time highs and beyond, as the major drivers for the bull market - skepticism, put buying, and short selling in the face of strong price action, reasonable valuation, and massive liquidity - remain firmly in place."
June 21, 2007 "This market certainly faces some challenges, not the least of which is some serious long-term resistance at 1,550 on the SPX futures."

Bernie Schaeffer At a Glance
Market-Timing Accuracy | What Others Are Saying