Stocks quoted in this article:
There is tight and loose thinking, just as there is tight and loose money. And you can say there is a mental gap as well as a dollar gap.
I'm convinced, however, that the application of serious contrary thinking and ruminating go a long way toward correcting thinking deficiencies. It takes mental discipline to practice contrary thinking --
to read and needle -- but those of us who have made the effort feel well repaid, I'm sure.
There is a vast difference, as I see it, between an open mind and a gapping mind. An active open mind is ready for ideas -- pro and con -- and is prepared to arrive at a conclusion. An open mind is not a wishy-washy one, whereas a gapping thought-apparatus takes in opinions and ideas of others and goes to sleep on them without further examination.
-- Humphrey B. Neill, The Art of Contrary Thinking, 1954
In times like these, when anxiety is high, and confidence low, it pays to take a step back and examine the facts without emotion. Often times, we find ourselves dissecting the ambivalent nature of the market, looking for the next big thing, missing the opportunities that are right in front of us. Assuredly, the global equity investing climate is ominous, or so it seems from the constant media attention paid to fiscal matters. Timing the market is not easy, nor is it for the faint of heart.
In this post, I take a look at a few indicators that suggest you should swim against the tide, and increase your allocation to equities. In the face of this uncertain market environment, I suggest you "buy fear" as opposed to "buying greed."
The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) sentiment survey measures the percentage of individual investors who are bullish, bearish, and neutral on the stock market in the short term. Individuals are polled from the AAII website on a weekly basis. This indicator can be used as a tool to measure crowd sentiment based upon retail investors. Currently, only 25% of investors are bullish, which is the lowest reading since August 2010. By taking a look at the chart below -- which combines survey respondents who are either neutral or bearish toward the stock market -- you see how prevalent the pessimistic attitude has become.

The Investors Intelligence Short-Term Composite Indicator is a proprietary indicator generated from scores awarded to 29 market indicators (unweighted) and is only concerned with the most recent action. The indicator oscillates between values of 0 and 100, and provides the first indication of short-term moves. Typically, it detects potential up moves from oversold readings and down moves from overbought readings. As noted on Thursday, this indicator is currently near the basement at 5.2.