Schaeffer's Trading Floor Blog

Highs & Lows: Alpha Natural Resources, Peabody Energy, and Verizon

VZ hit a new annual high, while ANR, BTU, CNX, RFMD, and SNDK fell to new annual lows

by 5/18/2012 2:30 PM
Stocks quoted in this article:

Stocks appear to be headed south this afternoon, as a week-long downtrend and continued anxieties from the euro zone are outweighing Facebook's (FB) impressive IPO action. Highlighting this negativity, the NYSE has racked up only seven stocks at new annual highs, compared to 120 fresh lows. Over on the Nasdaq, things are nearly identical, as there are currently five fresh highs and 133 annual lows. Among the stocks hitting notable technical milestones in today's trading are Alpha Natural Resources, Inc. (ANR), Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU), and Verizon Communications, Inc. (VZ).

Notable Stock at an Annual High

  • Verizon Communications, Inc. (VZ - 41.45) peaked at $41.96 today -- its best price since December 2007 -- as the largest mobile-phone carrier in the U.S. said it will eliminate unlimited data plans for customers who upgrade their cell phone at a discounted rate. VZ has gained roughly 11% over the past 52 weeks, and the equity's Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 64. Thirteen out of 30 analysts have doled out a "strong buy" rating on the telecom issue.

Notable Stocks at Annual Lows

  • Following news that a worker at its West Virginia coal plant suffered a fatal fall, Alpha Natural Resources, Inc. (ANR - 10.09) this afternoon notched a new all-time worst of $10.88. Today's pullback exacerbated ANR's 77% year-over-year deficit. Currently, the stock's RSI is perched at a relatively slim 22, while most analysts appear to be bullish. ANR has garnered 14 "strong buys" out of 20 total recommendations.
  • Meanwhile, Consol Energy, Inc. (CNX - 29.39) dipped to a near three-year low of $29.01 today, adding to its 38.1% 52-week decline. CNX's RSI checks in at 34, and 67% of the 21 brokerages maintain a "buy" endorsement for the laggard.
  • ANR and CNX sector peer Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU - 23.99) said it leased 402 million tons of ultra low sulfur coal reserves in Wyoming. This news pushed the shares to a three-year low of $23.87. Over the past year, BTU has lopped off more than 58%, and its RSI arrives at a lean 28. A deeper downside could be in store, as 17 of the 19 analysts following stock consider it worthy of a "buy."
  • RF Micro Devices, Inc. (RFMD - 3.60) plummeted to its worst price since July 2009, bottoming out at the $3.57 mark just moments ago. The stock has drifted 39.6% lower on a year-over-year basis, and its RSI sits at 31. Of the 15 brokerages following the semiconductor manufacturer, only six think it a "buy."
  • Fellow tech issue SanDisk Corporation (SNDK - 31.90) was started at "hold" by ThinkEquity this morning, and dropped to more than two-year low of $31.45. This analyst-induced drop only amplified the equity's 30.4% 12-month loss. SNDK's RSI of 21 is inching into oversold territory, and a fresh bout of downgrades could apply additional selling pressure. Despite the stock's overall downtrend, 14 out of 20 brokerages uphold "buy" ratings.


permanent link

So Much For That Oversold Bounce…

The number of SPX stocks above their 10-day trendline is dwindling

by 5/18/2012 12:07 PM
Stocks quoted in this article:

Yesterday I noted that only 13% of the stocks in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) were above their 10-day moving average, and how this could bode well for some type of bounce in the near term. Well, after yesterday's 156-point drop, there are now only 6% of stocks above their 10-day moving average. As you can see below, we are getting very close to some previous lows.

SPX vs Stocks Above 10-day Moving Averages

Taking things a step further, we looked at what happens when this reading drops beneath 10% (remember, it was just 6% last night). Turns out, it's happened 28 times since 2005, and the results aren't quite what I expected. As you can see here, the 1- and 2-week returns are actually negative. So much for expecting this oversold reading to produce some short-term strength. However, the good news is the 1- and 2-month returns do improve and beat the at-anytime returns by a good margin.

SPX Returns After a Signal

Just in case you wondered, here are those 28 other instances and what happened (click to enlarge):

Click to Enlarge

permanent link

Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) Helps Lead Tech Stocks Higher as Facebook Debuts

Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) is on track for its first daily gain since May 10

by 5/18/2012 11:27 AM
Stocks quoted in this article:

Shares of Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) have struggled right along with the broader equities market, with the stock swallowing a weekly loss of 6.5% through Thursday's closing bell. However, AAPL has bounced to a gain of 2.2% in today's trading. The major market indexes got off to a shaky start this morning, but excitement over the initial public offering from Facebook (FB) is contributing to strength in a number of tech stocks. After bouncing from its 100-day moving average, AAPL is now looking to end a five-session slump, as the shares haven't managed a daily win since last Thursday, May 10.

Going forward, there are a few crucial levels for traders to watch on this stock. The 100-day and 20-week moving averages are converging near $530, so this could remain a significant layer of support. On the other hand, the looming $550 level could be a sticking point. This round-number area briefly acted as resistance in late February and early March, so AAPL could run into some psychological pressure as it attempts to retake this region. Beyond that, the equity's 10-day and 80-day trendlines are on the cusp of a bearish cross in the $555 neighborhood.

In any event, if you're anticipating a continued directional move in AAPL shares, now is an opportune time to buy premium on the stock. The Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) currently stands at a lofty 92, suggesting that short-term options are attractively priced, relative to the likelihood of a sizable move in the stock.

Daily Chart of AAPL since December 2011 With 100-Day Moving Average


permanent link

Is It Time to Buy Stocks?

As contrarians know, it pays to be greedy when others are fearful

by 5/18/2012 9:58 AM
Stocks quoted in this article:

There is tight and loose thinking, just as there is tight and loose money. And you can say there is a mental gap as well as a dollar gap.

I'm convinced, however, that the application of serious contrary thinking and ruminating go a long way toward correcting thinking deficiencies. It takes mental discipline to practice contrary thinking -- to read and needle -- but those of us who have made the effort feel well repaid, I'm sure.

There is a vast difference, as I see it, between an open mind and a gapping mind. An active open mind is ready for ideas -- pro and con -- and is prepared to arrive at a conclusion. An open mind is not a wishy-washy one, whereas a gapping thought-apparatus takes in opinions and ideas of others and goes to sleep on them without further examination.

-- Humphrey B. Neill, The Art of Contrary Thinking, 1954

In times like these, when anxiety is high, and confidence low, it pays to take a step back and examine the facts without emotion. Often times, we find ourselves dissecting the ambivalent nature of the market, looking for the next big thing, missing the opportunities that are right in front of us. Assuredly, the global equity investing climate is ominous, or so it seems from the constant media attention paid to fiscal matters. Timing the market is not easy, nor is it for the faint of heart.

In this post, I take a look at a few indicators that suggest you should swim against the tide, and increase your allocation to equities. In the face of this uncertain market environment, I suggest you "buy fear" as opposed to "buying greed."

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) sentiment survey measures the percentage of individual investors who are bullish, bearish, and neutral on the stock market in the short term. Individuals are polled from the AAII website on a weekly basis. This indicator can be used as a tool to measure crowd sentiment based upon retail investors. Currently, only 25% of investors are bullish, which is the lowest reading since August 2010. By taking a look at the chart below -- which combines survey respondents who are either neutral or bearish toward the stock market -- you see how prevalent the pessimistic attitude has become.

AAII Sentiment Survey Results - Bearish and Neutral Percentage

The Investors Intelligence Short-Term Composite Indicator is a proprietary indicator generated from scores awarded to 29 market indicators (unweighted) and is only concerned with the most recent action. The indicator oscillates between values of 0 and 100, and provides the first indication of short-term moves. Typically, it detects potential up moves from oversold readings and down moves from overbought readings. As noted on Thursday, this indicator is currently near the basement at 5.2.

Investors Intelligence Short-Term Composite Indicator


permanent link

Analyst Downgrades: CY, GME, and MRVL

Analysts downwardly revised their ratings on Cypress Semi, GameStop, and Marvell Technology

by 5/18/2012 9:21 AM
Stocks quoted in this article:

Analysts are weighing in today on chip stock Cypress Semiconductor Corporation (CY - 12.85), video game retailer GameStop Corp. (GME - 18.52), and tech stock Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (MRVL - 13.30). Here's a quick roundup of today's bearish brokerage notes.

  • Analysts at UBS are staying busy today. The brokerage firm this morning slashed its rating on CY to "neutral" from "buy," diverging from the bullish majority. Currently, CY sports 10 "buy" or better ratings from brokerage firms, compared to two "holds" and one "strong sell." In light of the stock's year-to-date swoon of 23.9%, additional downgrades could be in CY's future.
  • After the retailer's disappointing earnings report, GME today was downgraded to "average" from "buy" at Caris & Co., while BMO trimmed its price target to $24 from $30 and reiterated its "market perform" opinion. The shares plummeted 12.5% on Thursday, but found their footing near the $18.50 level -- which previously marked a bottom for GME last August. The stock is set to test this tenuous support in today's session, down 0.1% in electronic trading.
  • Following last night's first-quarter report, MRVL was hit with a trio of price-target cuts this morning. ThinkEquity cut its target to $14 from $16, Citigroup lowered its target to $18 from $19, and Benchmark dropped its forecast to $15 from $16. The average 12-month price target for MRVL stands at $18.34, implying expected upside of about 38% from Thursday's close at $13.30. The shares have declined nearly 4% so far in 2012, but MRVL is set to bounce about 3.3% at the open.


permanent link
1 
2 
3 
4 
5 
… 
Options Analysis Sponsored by

Partner Center

© 2012 Schaeffer's Investment Research, Inc. 5151 Pfeiffer Road, Suite 250, Cincinnati, Ohio 45242 Phone: (800) 448-2080 FAX: (513) 589-3810 Int'l Callers: (513) 589-3800 Email: service@sir-inc.com

All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized reproduction of any SIR publication is strictly prohibited.

Market Data provided by QuoteMedia.com | Data delayed 15-20 minutes unless otherwise indicated.